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With the Dutch elections now over, many are breathing a sigh of relief that a moderate, centrist party is to remain in government. While there was always little chance of Geert Wilders taking power, the fact that his party is not the largest in parliament will mean a return to normal in Dutch politics.

But following Brexit and a rise in nationalist sentiment in Europe, coupled with President Trump threatening to introduce a more protectionist approach to international trade, there is uncertainty in the agribusiness industry over how this will impact trade in agricultural products. Worse still, there are major questions on what the German Federal elections (due in Sept 2017) and the French Presidential elections (first round in April 2017) will bring. Such anxiety over government intentions is never good for business, so it is worth taking time to look at the facts in the current situation, as they may give a clue to future events influencing agrichemical markets.

What will Trump do for AG Trading?

Much has already been said about Donald Trump’s approach to trade and diplomacy, but the overriding view from business analysts is one of unpredictability. However, his views on trade are possibly best summed up by Simon Denyer of the Washington Post, when he wrote that, “[Trump is] a man who sees trade as a zero-sum game, and sees anyone ‘beating’ the United States as a threat.”

Understanding this helps chemical traders comprehend Trump’s approach to international trade. A vital point highlighted by Antonio Graceffo when he wrote in the Foreign Policy Review, “Across the globe, people are wondering why the US, usually the leader in free trade, is now taking such a protectionist stance. [But] Donald Trump obviously believed that the TPP partners were ‘beating us’ on trade, and so he voted to leave. Furthermore, leaving the TPP will most likely be only the first of many steps in the new Trump-lead American protectionism, under the slogan ‘America First’.”

It might be hoped that Trump would have the concerns of the farming community in mind, as the more rural states in America formed the bedrock of his election win. As Ricardo J. Salvador and Nora Gilbert noted in a recent article for the Guardian, “Caught in a toxic cycle of depressed commodity prices, rising debt and plummeting income, it comes as no surprise that American farmers voted en masse for change and the hope of different leadership with new ideas.”

And yet there have been many in the agricultural industry that have voiced concern for Trump’s withdrawal from international trade deals. As the independent, industry journal Investigate Midwest reports in an article entitled, “Trump’s pull-out of TPP deal prompts criticism, anger from AG industry”. It continues by quoting industry bodies that firmly believe that success for American agribusiness means staying in such trade agreements.

For example, the American Farm Bureau Association stated that, “Trade is vital to the success of our nation’s farmers and ranchers. More than 25 percent of all U.S. ag production ultimately goes to markets outside our borders. We viewed TPP as a positive agreement for agriculture – one that would have added $4.4 billion annually to our struggling agriculture economy.”

While the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said that, “TPP and NAFTA have long been convenient political punching bags, but the reality is that foreign trade has been one of the greatest success stories in the long history of the U.S. beef industry.” And continued to state that, “Fact is American cattle producers are already losing out on $400,000 in sales every day because we don’t have TPP, and since NAFTA was implemented, exports of American-produced beef to Mexico have grown by more than 750%.”

Meanwhile the American Soybean Association’s President, Ron Moore, pointed out that, “Trade is something soybean farmers take very seriously. We export more than half the soy we grow here in the United States, and still more in the form of meat and other products that are produced with our meal and oil.”

Despite these industry appeals for more open trading, the fact remains that the current White House administration is heading in a different direction that will seemingly take the business out of agribusiness.

Furthermore, with Marine Le Pen leading the opinion polls in the French Presidential elections (as of 17/3/17) and Germany’s right-wing, Euro sceptic, Alternative for Germany party climbing to third place (as of 17/3/17), should we now also fear the impact of populism in European AG markets?

Is Europe also Heading for Protectionism?

If Le Pen has her way, then there will be major repercussions for French agriculture and trading in agricultural products. To know this, one need look no further than Le Pen’s open declaration to Euronews, when she said, ““With Brexit, people made the choice for border control, re-industrialisation, economic patriotism, intelligent protectionism. The United States has chosen the same by electing Trump. I’ve been pushing for this new world order for years. [Political divisions] no longer put the right and left in opposition, but patriots and globalists.”

The article continues by explaining that, “Social and employment policy are thus presented in terms of promoting ‘patriotic’ models. There are pledges to promote French business, to protect the economy where necessary from foreign investment and free it from ‘European constraints’, to impose an extra tax on the employment of foreign nationals.”

Meanwhile, the party leader for Alternative for Germany, Frauke Petry (a doctor of chemistry, who according to Politico, entered politics in 2013, “after a chemical company she started with her mother went bankrupt”) is maintaining her anti-Euro stance.

She told InternationalTradeNews that, “Everyone who is anyone in business has come to the conclusion that the euro project has failed.” Adding that, “I would like to mention that exports [from Germany to] the eurozone have not risen but have actually fallen. I have seen that first hand in my own nine-employee company. Since last year we have been experiencing an extreme drop in turnover from our European partners. For us, the upward valuation of a national currency in the form of a new German mark would mean a fall in the cost of raw materials which would allow us to offer more attractive prices to our European neighbours.”

While her party collegues show an equal approval of Trump’s protectionist stance, with Euractiv news reporting how in an interview, “The AfD also wanted to clarify its position on TTIP, the planned free trade agreement between the US and Europe. ‘TTIP is a new dividing force in Europe along the lines of the Cold War,’ said deputy AfD spokesperson, Alexander Gauland.

Fortunately, demand for fertilizers and crop protection products remains strong, so there is every possibility that agribusiness profits will still be made in the coming years. For evidence of this, one need only look at a recent interview Chris Jahn, President of the Fertilizer Institute, gave to ICIS. Here he explained the thoughts of many businessmen, especially those in complex, competitive, international trading such as agrichemical products, in a desire for open trading, whoever is in power.

“There is a lot of rhetoric around trade from both sides frankly and it’s a little bit alarming,” he said, “not just for fertilizers but for agriculture in general. We can’t consume everything that we produce here [in America] and so having open markets across the world is really important and agriculture is a big success story for our trading.”

But of course, this view also returns to politics, as he continues by arguing how, “European imports coming into the United States don’t pay any tariffs, but we go into Europe and there is a 6.5% tariff on fertilizers so [the] TTIP is important for us to unlock some of those European markets. Particularly, at a time when margins are tight, prices are low, 6.5% doesn’t sound like a lot but it’s enough to make a difference and so we are looking for Europe to open up and let’s just compete and whoever wins, wins.”

So maybe populism is a good or bad thing only depending on which side of the Atlantic, or wall, you are sitting.

Like Wilders, and also like Trump, Le Pen and Petry may have little chance of winning, but the popularity of their ideas may still influence the next government. If that is the case, then maybe there is little need to watch the election results, but instead be aware that there has been a sea-change in international politics and international trade. Rightly or wrongly, many voters are rejecting globalisation in favour of a more nationalistic view on how government policy can benefit them. They may or may not be misguided beliefs, but it seems that they will be impacting the agrichemical industry for years to come.

Photo credit: Christophe Ena/AP

Historians have often commented on how history is shaped by mankind’s understanding of materials. Great civilizations, such as the Egyptians or Mayans, rose and fell on stone masonry skills; ancient Rome was shaped on the discovery of concrete; Victorian England flourished on a mastery of iron railways, iron bridges and iron ships; while the modern world revolves around the use of plastics.

So in many ways, ceramics are history‘s forgotten material; a 25,000 year-old technology that is rarely thought to make an impact beyond the dinner plate. But as the world becomes more high-tech, the ceramics industry has a larger and larger role to play in the modern global economy.

As a Marketsandmarkets report notes, “The market size of technical ceramics is estimated to grow from $5.86 billion in 2015 to $8.49 billion by 2021, at a CAGR of 6.43%.”

This growth is due to the increased number of applications for ceramics in the modern world. As the ceramics company Cerahelix states, “Today’s ceramics industry provides products for high tech industries like the computer, aerospace, medical, and filtration industries.”

While NASA notes the increased usage of ceramics in space exploration, satelites, rocket propulsion, gas turbine engines and hypersonic spacecraft of the future. And they are also present in silicon chips, catalytic converters and superconductors.

With a clear use in the technological industries of the future, will the 21st century be the age of ceramics?

Will ceramics be the key material of the 21st century?

Maybe. But ceramics as a material suffer one major economic disadvantage; their production requires a lot of energy. Cement, bricks, bathroom tiles and crockery all need to be fired in kilns at temperatures well in excess of 1,000°C. This often makes ceramics not only economically unviable, but also environmentally unsound.

But now a team of researchers from ETH Zurich, have developed a process that can manufacture ceramics without a kiln. In fact, they have already made ceramic samples the size of a Dime or one Euro coin, at room temperature, in about an hour.

As the online journal Phys.org reports, “ETH Zurich have developed what seems at first glance to be an astonishingly simple method of manufacture that works at room temperature. The scientists used a calcium carbonate nanopowder as the starting material and instead of firing it, they added a small amount of water and then compacted it.
Sedimentary rock is formed from sediment that is compressed over millions of years through the pressure exerted by overlying deposits. This process turns calcium carbonate sediment into limestone with the help of the surrounding water. As the ETH researchers used calcium carbonate with an extremely fine particle size (nanoparticles) as the starting material, their compacting process took only an hour.”

As one of the researchers, Florian Bouville explains, “The manufacturing process is based on the geological process of rock formation.” This new process is one that experts have called ‘cold sintering’.

The team described cold sintering in great detail, when they published their results in the journal Nature Communications. Here the team write that, “In conclusion, cold sintering of a nanoscale powder at high pressures enables the fabrication of strong and dense structural materials with water and at room temperature within timescales comparable to those of typical manufacturing processes.” Adding that the process will have practical capabilities, “This simple up-scalable process offers an alternative pathway for the processing of inorganic materials under energy-inexpensive mild conditions, and may allow fabrication of complex organic–inorganic architectures that mimic the design principles of functional biological materials.”

“For a long time, material scientists have been searching for a way to produce ceramic materials under mild conditions, as the firing process requires a large amount of energy,” says ETH professor and project partner, André Studart. “Our work is the first evidence that a piece of ceramic material can be manufactured at room temperature in such a short amount of time and with relatively low pressures.”

The ceramics produced so far, have excellent properties that are likely to make them very useful in the expanding technology industry. As Phys.org reports, “Tests have shown, the new material can withstand about ten times as much force as concrete before it breaks, and is as stiff as stone or concrete. In other words, it is just as hard to deform.” Adding that, “the samples produced [were made] using a conventional hydraulic press such as those normally used in industry.”

The simplicity of the process, coupled with its practical application, is making ceramic industry leaders contemplate if manufacturing could be scaled up. The technology is certainly more energy efficient than heating materials in a kiln, and even makes production of composite materials possible, by adding, for example, plastic.

But the real set back, is that to date, only small samples have been made. As Bouville says, “The challenge is to generate a sufficiently high pressure for the compacting process. Larger workpieces require a correspondingly greater force.”

If this can be overcome, which is a real possibility, then the process could open the way to not only cheaper ceramics, but more sustainable ceramics. This is because the process could be used as part of CO²-neutral manufacturing. Carbonate nanoparticles could be produced from captured carbon dioxide, from either the atmosphere or from waste by-products from thermal power stations. Captured CO² would be allowed to react with a suitable powered rock to form carbonate, which could then be used to manufacture ceramics.

Making ceramics without a kiln may sound crazy, but the process could even be adopted for manufacturing cheaper substitutes for cement-based materials. It could even revolutioize brick manufacturing and the construction industry, both of which consumer vast amounts of heat energy in manufacturing products.

Ceramics made at room temperature! In about an hour! This may be the birth of the age of ceramics.

Photo credits: ETH Zurich/Peter Ruegg

Take a look at the agricultural commodities markets, and most predict a bearish outlook for rock phosphate prices. Dicalcium and monocalcium phosphate markets are generally seen as over-supplied, and there is a great deal of talk of plant closures, especially in Europe and the Far East.

Which is why it may come as a surprise to read that PhosAgro, the world’s third largest monocalcium phosphate processor, is considering expanding their phosphate processing operations.

Take a look at some of the evidence. This includes PhosAgro’s Chief Executive, Andrey Guryev, speaking to the industry journal Agropages in October 2016, when he hinted that prices may be on the up. What he said was, “Phosphate producers [in China] will be forced to start cutting production soon, helping prices to find a floor.”

Guryev also told Reuters on 27/1/2017, that, “As one of the lowest-cost producers in the world the company [PhosAgro] plans to keep increasing output beyond 2017 by 5-10% a year.”

Similarly, the journal Agrimoney, on 26/1/2017, quoted a Raymond James report which stated that, “‘Phosphate prices were up due to better balance in China, where suppliers have shown increased discipline, focusing more on the domestic market,’ and reducing exports.”

Yet again, Agrimoney quoted a PotashCorp report on 7/2/2017, which stated that, the phosphate market was restructuring – “especially in China” and that, “had helped stabilise producer margins.”

Furthermore, PhosAgro released a press release in early January 2017, stating, “The Company‘s strategic development goals in the coming years will remain production capacity growth and increased sales through expanded presence in priority markets of Russia/CIS, Europe and Latin America, as well as other countries with favourable pricing.” It continues to add that, “PhosAgro‘s plans through 2020 focus on developing the Group’s mineral base and expansion of beneficiation capacities at Apatit, [as well as] modernising sulphuric and wet-process phosphoric acid production facilities.”

With H1 profits for 2016 reported to have, “increased by 30% to RUB 36.1 billion ($514 million),” with revenues also up, “by 9% to RUB 102 billion ($1,452 million).” The company clearly has the assets for expansion, as well as the know-how essential for the specialized animal feed market.

So maybe PhosAgro is planning to expand, which markets would it target? The second surprise in this article is that its goal may be to increase production in Spain.

Why Expand Monocalcium Phosphate Production in Spain?

PhosAgro are not alone in looking to Spain (as an alternative to China and India) for rock phosphate processing facility expansion. While at first this may seem a somewhat random choice, closer examination makes the suggestion rather more logical.

The Iberian peninsula holds a stable economy, with a skilled workforce, and EU membership that grants access to a vast meat eating market. Plus its animal livestock numbers are growing rapidly, as a USDA report from October 2016 states, “Spain’s cattle and beef production in 2015 shows a rebound in production after several years following a downward trend. It is mainly due to the strong demand of live animals from third countries such as Lebanon, Libya and Algeria, reasonable feed costs and better profitability margins. Spanish beef exports also experienced strong growth due to competitive prices.”

But the expansion is not only in cattle farming, for as the industry journal Pig Progress explains, “Spain has overtaken Germany as the country with the largest pig herd in the European Union (EU). The Spanish pig sector has grown strongly over the last few years and for now there is no end to this growth.”

But perhaps most significantly, potential Spanish monocalcium phosphate processing plants in Seville would be only a 21 hour truck journey from the rock phosphate mines in Bou Craa, Western Sahara. While a secure shipping route, that would take advantage of the rock phosphate conveyor belt, would take only a few days sailing.

While the possibility of expansion in Spain is perhaps no more than speculation, it is hard to deny PhosAgro’s ability and intentions for growth, with Guryev speaking optimistically of the chance for increased production.

Reuters on 27/1/2017, reports him saying, “We expect China’s inefficient plants to close. And because it will lead to certain shortages, their big enterprises will divert their deliveries towards the domestic market.” Adding that, “PhosAgro [will] develop its own distribution and trading in Europe and Latin America to further boost direct sales to clients from the current rate of 70%.”

Look at the evidence again; expectations of reduced Chinese phosphate processing capacity; fear of supply security to rock phosphate mines in the Middle East; PhosAgro’s stated intention for expansion; Spain’s relative closeness to Western Sahara; and Spain’s growing livestock numbers.

Given all these factors, does it really sound so crazy to expect production growth of Spanish monocalcium phosphate sometime soon?

Photo credit: CNN

Photo credit: Eurostat

Photo credit: mining-technology.com