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Historians have often commented on how history is shaped by mankind’s understanding of materials. Great civilizations, such as the Egyptians or Mayans, rose and fell on stone masonry skills; ancient Rome was shaped on the discovery of concrete; Victorian England flourished on a mastery of iron railways, iron bridges and iron ships; while the modern world revolves around the use of plastics.

So in many ways, ceramics are history‘s forgotten material; a 25,000 year-old technology that is rarely thought to make an impact beyond the dinner plate. But as the world becomes more high-tech, the ceramics industry has a larger and larger role to play in the modern global economy.

As a Marketsandmarkets report notes, “The market size of technical ceramics is estimated to grow from $5.86 billion in 2015 to $8.49 billion by 2021, at a CAGR of 6.43%.”

This growth is due to the increased number of applications for ceramics in the modern world. As the ceramics company Cerahelix states, “Today’s ceramics industry provides products for high tech industries like the computer, aerospace, medical, and filtration industries.”

While NASA notes the increased usage of ceramics in space exploration, satelites, rocket propulsion, gas turbine engines and hypersonic spacecraft of the future. And they are also present in silicon chips, catalytic converters and superconductors.

With a clear use in the technological industries of the future, will the 21st century be the age of ceramics?

Will ceramics be the key material of the 21st century?

Maybe. But ceramics as a material suffer one major economic disadvantage; their production requires a lot of energy. Cement, bricks, bathroom tiles and crockery all need to be fired in kilns at temperatures well in excess of 1,000°C. This often makes ceramics not only economically unviable, but also environmentally unsound.

But now a team of researchers from ETH Zurich, have developed a process that can manufacture ceramics without a kiln. In fact, they have already made ceramic samples the size of a Dime or one Euro coin, at room temperature, in about an hour.

As the online journal Phys.org reports, “ETH Zurich have developed what seems at first glance to be an astonishingly simple method of manufacture that works at room temperature. The scientists used a calcium carbonate nanopowder as the starting material and instead of firing it, they added a small amount of water and then compacted it.
Sedimentary rock is formed from sediment that is compressed over millions of years through the pressure exerted by overlying deposits. This process turns calcium carbonate sediment into limestone with the help of the surrounding water. As the ETH researchers used calcium carbonate with an extremely fine particle size (nanoparticles) as the starting material, their compacting process took only an hour.”

As one of the researchers, Florian Bouville explains, “The manufacturing process is based on the geological process of rock formation.” This new process is one that experts have called ‘cold sintering’.

The team described cold sintering in great detail, when they published their results in the journal Nature Communications. Here the team write that, “In conclusion, cold sintering of a nanoscale powder at high pressures enables the fabrication of strong and dense structural materials with water and at room temperature within timescales comparable to those of typical manufacturing processes.” Adding that the process will have practical capabilities, “This simple up-scalable process offers an alternative pathway for the processing of inorganic materials under energy-inexpensive mild conditions, and may allow fabrication of complex organic–inorganic architectures that mimic the design principles of functional biological materials.”

“For a long time, material scientists have been searching for a way to produce ceramic materials under mild conditions, as the firing process requires a large amount of energy,” says ETH professor and project partner, André Studart. “Our work is the first evidence that a piece of ceramic material can be manufactured at room temperature in such a short amount of time and with relatively low pressures.”

The ceramics produced so far, have excellent properties that are likely to make them very useful in the expanding technology industry. As Phys.org reports, “Tests have shown, the new material can withstand about ten times as much force as concrete before it breaks, and is as stiff as stone or concrete. In other words, it is just as hard to deform.” Adding that, “the samples produced [were made] using a conventional hydraulic press such as those normally used in industry.”

The simplicity of the process, coupled with its practical application, is making ceramic industry leaders contemplate if manufacturing could be scaled up. The technology is certainly more energy efficient than heating materials in a kiln, and even makes production of composite materials possible, by adding, for example, plastic.

But the real set back, is that to date, only small samples have been made. As Bouville says, “The challenge is to generate a sufficiently high pressure for the compacting process. Larger workpieces require a correspondingly greater force.”

If this can be overcome, which is a real possibility, then the process could open the way to not only cheaper ceramics, but more sustainable ceramics. This is because the process could be used as part of CO²-neutral manufacturing. Carbonate nanoparticles could be produced from captured carbon dioxide, from either the atmosphere or from waste by-products from thermal power stations. Captured CO² would be allowed to react with a suitable powered rock to form carbonate, which could then be used to manufacture ceramics.

Making ceramics without a kiln may sound crazy, but the process could even be adopted for manufacturing cheaper substitutes for cement-based materials. It could even revolutioize brick manufacturing and the construction industry, both of which consumer vast amounts of heat energy in manufacturing products.

Ceramics made at room temperature! In about an hour! This may be the birth of the age of ceramics.

Photo credits: ETH Zurich/Peter Ruegg

Take a look at the agricultural commodities markets, and most predict a bearish outlook for rock phosphate prices. Dicalcium and monocalcium phosphate markets are generally seen as over-supplied, and there is a great deal of talk of plant closures, especially in Europe and the Far East.

Which is why it may come as a surprise to read that PhosAgro, the world’s third largest monocalcium phosphate processor, is considering expanding their phosphate processing operations.

Take a look at some of the evidence. This includes PhosAgro’s Chief Executive, Andrey Guryev, speaking to the industry journal Agropages in October 2016, when he hinted that prices may be on the up. What he said was, “Phosphate producers [in China] will be forced to start cutting production soon, helping prices to find a floor.”

Guryev also told Reuters on 27/1/2017, that, “As one of the lowest-cost producers in the world the company [PhosAgro] plans to keep increasing output beyond 2017 by 5-10% a year.”

Similarly, the journal Agrimoney, on 26/1/2017, quoted a Raymond James report which stated that, “‘Phosphate prices were up due to better balance in China, where suppliers have shown increased discipline, focusing more on the domestic market,’ and reducing exports.”

Yet again, Agrimoney quoted a PotashCorp report on 7/2/2017, which stated that, the phosphate market was restructuring – “especially in China” and that, “had helped stabilise producer margins.”

Furthermore, PhosAgro released a press release in early January 2017, stating, “The Company‘s strategic development goals in the coming years will remain production capacity growth and increased sales through expanded presence in priority markets of Russia/CIS, Europe and Latin America, as well as other countries with favourable pricing.” It continues to add that, “PhosAgro‘s plans through 2020 focus on developing the Group’s mineral base and expansion of beneficiation capacities at Apatit, [as well as] modernising sulphuric and wet-process phosphoric acid production facilities.”

With H1 profits for 2016 reported to have, “increased by 30% to RUB 36.1 billion ($514 million),” with revenues also up, “by 9% to RUB 102 billion ($1,452 million).” The company clearly has the assets for expansion, as well as the know-how essential for the specialized animal feed market.

So maybe PhosAgro is planning to expand, which markets would it target? The second surprise in this article is that its goal may be to increase production in Spain.

Why Expand Monocalcium Phosphate Production in Spain?

PhosAgro are not alone in looking to Spain (as an alternative to China and India) for rock phosphate processing facility expansion. While at first this may seem a somewhat random choice, closer examination makes the suggestion rather more logical.

The Iberian peninsula holds a stable economy, with a skilled workforce, and EU membership that grants access to a vast meat eating market. Plus its animal livestock numbers are growing rapidly, as a USDA report from October 2016 states, “Spain’s cattle and beef production in 2015 shows a rebound in production after several years following a downward trend. It is mainly due to the strong demand of live animals from third countries such as Lebanon, Libya and Algeria, reasonable feed costs and better profitability margins. Spanish beef exports also experienced strong growth due to competitive prices.”

But the expansion is not only in cattle farming, for as the industry journal Pig Progress explains, “Spain has overtaken Germany as the country with the largest pig herd in the European Union (EU). The Spanish pig sector has grown strongly over the last few years and for now there is no end to this growth.”

But perhaps most significantly, potential Spanish monocalcium phosphate processing plants in Seville would be only a 21 hour truck journey from the rock phosphate mines in Bou Craa, Western Sahara. While a secure shipping route, that would take advantage of the rock phosphate conveyor belt, would take only a few days sailing.

While the possibility of expansion in Spain is perhaps no more than speculation, it is hard to deny PhosAgro’s ability and intentions for growth, with Guryev speaking optimistically of the chance for increased production.

Reuters on 27/1/2017, reports him saying, “We expect China’s inefficient plants to close. And because it will lead to certain shortages, their big enterprises will divert their deliveries towards the domestic market.” Adding that, “PhosAgro [will] develop its own distribution and trading in Europe and Latin America to further boost direct sales to clients from the current rate of 70%.”

Look at the evidence again; expectations of reduced Chinese phosphate processing capacity; fear of supply security to rock phosphate mines in the Middle East; PhosAgro’s stated intention for expansion; Spain’s relative closeness to Western Sahara; and Spain’s growing livestock numbers.

Given all these factors, does it really sound so crazy to expect production growth of Spanish monocalcium phosphate sometime soon?

Photo credit: CNN

Photo credit: Eurostat

Photo credit: mining-technology.com

The supply of rock phosphate has not always been certain, and it is this risk that has led to market instability, price volatility and caution over fertilizer and animal feed production levels. A fact acknowledged by the EU, when it added rock phosphate to its list of ‘critical materials’, which currently includes only 20 global commodities.

Fortunately, the planet still has sufficient phosphate reserves to match current demand. A fact supported by Pedro Sanchez, director of the Agriculture and Food Security Center at the Earth Institute, who claims that, “Once every decade, in my long 50-year career, people say we are going to run out of phosphorus. Each time this is disproven. All the most reliable estimates show that we have enough phosphate rock resources to last between 300 and 400 more years.”

Similarly, a recent analysis published in the Yale University journal Yale Environment 360 confirms that, “The world is not about to run out of phosphate.” But it also continues, by warning that, “Demand is rising, most of the best reserves are gone, and those that remain are in just a handful of countries.” Adding that, “Dana Cordell of Linkoping University in Sweden, who runs an academic group called the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative, says we could hit ‘peak phosphorus’ production by around 2030.”

Worryingly, and accurately, the author concludes that, “Already, like other key commodities with once-dominant sources running low, the price of phosphate is starting to yo-yo alarmingly. But there are no new sources of phosphate. We continue to mine the rock — or we starve.”

But this begs the question, for such a necessary product, with ample reserves, where are phosphate prices heading?

A recent analysis of rock phostphate markets by Renee Cho of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, concluded that there were many problems for phosphate processors. These included, “… the decreasing quality of reserves, the growing global population, increased meat and dairy consumption (which require more fertilized grain for feed), wastage along the food chain, new technologies, deposit discoveries and improvements in agricultural efficiency and the recycling of phosphorus.”

Furthermore, she adds that, “climate change will affect the demand for phosphorus because agriculture will bear the brunt of changing weather patterns. Most experts agree, however, that the quality and accessibility of currently available phosphate rock reserves are declining, and the costs to mine, refine, store and transport them are rising.”

It is this last factor, transportation costs, that is seen by many as the tipping point in the rock phosphate market. An economic situation where unstable oil prices, coupled with unstable rock phosphate supplies may lead to a perfect storm in the market for vital fertilizer and animal feed products. A storm that may lead to price spikes similar to those of 2008.

The problem of transporting rock phosphate to animal feed markets is a point acknowledged in a recent report by the British parliament, which noted that, “In 2008, the price of phosphate rock increased by 800% in one year. Although the price fell sharply in late 2008, the phosphate rock price has still not returned to pre-event values. A combination of factors caused the prices to rise sharply in 2008, including elevated oil prices made it more expensive to move and process the rock.”

To avoid the challenges, and costs, of shipping phosphate supplies and agrichemical products around the world, many fertilizer and animal feed producers have looked to the emerging markets for expansion, and on many levels this makes sense. The classic example is China, which has both rock phosphate deposits, and a growing population, which is becoming more accustomed to the taste of meat.

This is a point raised by agricultural industry consultants, Agribusiness Intelligence, when they state that, “The use of phosphates plays an increasingly strategic and fast-growing role in animal feed and nutrition, particularly in China and other emerging markets, where meat and livestock consumption is rising on economic growth and demand from the middle classes.”

But this seemingly ideal situation has its own problems. There is a great deal of competition in the Far East, with Lomon, Chanhen, and SinoChem among the largest companies fighting for market share. While many new companies that hoped to expand dicalcium and monocalcium phosphate facilities are now struggling. Today, it is generally acknowledged that the market has over capacity.

There is also the added risk that the Chinese government might restrict the phosphate processing industry by putting political interests before business interests. An example of such action was when Beijing introduced a 135% export tax on fertilizer in order to protect domestic markets. This impacted global markets and helped fuel the 2008 rock phosphate price leap. Monocalcium phosphate manufacturers hoping to increase exports will prefer not to have such extreme interference from governments, and will look for more stable economies for expansion wherever possible.

Given that commodities markets are generally bearish for phosphate prices, it is little wonder that many Chinese phosphate processors are considering closing down, or are refocusing their sales solely on the predicted growth in Chinese agriculture. A point highlighted by the industry journal, Agrimoney when it noted the reductions in phosphate production on 7/2/2017, saying that, “Mosaic highlighted the ‘lower phosphate and potash prices’, which have forced the group, like many peers, into cutbacks.”

However, there is at least one producer of fertilizer and animal feed stock who is far more bullish about the future; PhosAgro. As Andrei Guryev, PhosAgro’s Chief Executive told CNBC on 27/1/2017, “We expect China’s inefficient plants to close. And because it will lead to certain shortages, their big enterprises will divert their deliveries towards the domestic market.”Adding that, “PhosAgro would develop its own distribution and trading in Europe and Latin America to further boost direct sales to clients from the current rate of 70%. As one of the lowest-cost producers in the world the company [PhosAgro] plans to keep increasing output beyond 2017 by 5-10% a year.”

This flies in the face of most opinion of a retraction in the markets, and so places the phosphate industry at somewhat of a crossroads. While some of the big players are making cutbacks, and commodity brokers are noting further price drops in fertilizer and animal feed stock raw materials, PhosAgro, one of the largest agrichemical producers in the world, is planning on growth and expansion. This is based on a calculated belief that dicalcium and monocalcium phosphate prices are to rise.

Only time will tell if the market is on the road to recovery. But given that food consumption is almost certain to grow, and that rock phosphate supplies seem generally stable for the foreseeable future, it may be that the rock phosphate processing industry is finally getting on an even keel.

Photo credit: LinkedIn

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