Is this the End of PFAS Production and Trade? – Maybe Not
Why industrial chemical traders should expect a reshaped, not a vanishing “forever chemicals” market.
Despite the headlines, the global PFAS market is not on the verge of disappearing.
For chemical traders, distributors, and manufacturers, the picture is far more commercially nuanced than the sweeping phase-out narrative suggests. Yes, major producers are exiting high-risk PFAS lines and regulators are tightening control—but these developments do not automatically equate to a collapse in PFAS production and supply. Instead, they signal a reshaping of the chemical supply chain, as specific fluorinated chemical products, essential-use sectors, and industrial chemical traders all adapt to the new chemical market.
Following on from the examination of the death of “forever chemical” production and trade (Is this the End of PFAS Production and Trade? – Maybe), here the market for the continued supply and production of PFAS is assessed.
No—This is NOT the Beginning of the End for PFAS
(at least not in the foreseeable future)
While the narrative of an imminent PFAS phase-out is gaining traction, the practical reality is far more complex. PFAS are not a single chemical but a vast and diverse chemical product group. Estimates vary, but more than 10,000 PFAS substances have been identified.
For this reason, chemical industry associations continue to argue that not all PFAS pose the same environmental or toxicological risk. Fluoropolymers, in particular, are often highlighted as high-molecular-weight, low-mobility materials that do not bioaccumulate in the same way as their low-molecular-weight counterparts. This has led to sustained lobbying for exemptions and a more granular approach to legal limits and controls.
For this reason, most regulatory proposals, including those from the ECHA, have targeted broad categories of the PFAS family, but still make allowances for specific compounds or applications. The result is that global treaties hailed as ending the use of PFAS, such as those under the Stockholm Convention, have actually banned only narrow subsets (e.g., PFOS, PFOA, PFHxS).
These exceptions are based on strategic necessity, as critically, a number of industries depend on PFAS for applications where performance requirements are extremely demanding. Semiconductor fabrication employs fluorinated chemistries for plasma etching, photoresists, and specialised coolants. Aerospace and defence applications utilise fluoropolymers for their exceptional thermal and chemical stability, while certain medical devices also rely on PFAS where sterility, lubricity, and biocompatibility are essential.
Related articles: Is this the End of PFAS Production and Trade? - Maybe or How Sustainability is Rewriting Chemical Trading
For many of these specialised uses, non-fluorinated alternatives either do not yet exist or fail to meet required specifications. The consequence is that even highly publicised PFAS restriction proposals acknowledge these applications as “essential use”.
Additionally, enforcement remains a practical challenge, as even with stringent regulations, global chemical supply chains can create leakage points. For example, production may shift towards less regulated regions, alternative PFAS variants may enter the market, or material substitution may introduce new chemistries with insufficient risk assessment. A brief glance at the history of chemical phase-outs highlights how often they result in “regrettable substitution,” where structurally similar—and potentially equally persistent—compounds fill the gap in the chemical market.
The likely trajectory is therefore not eradication but transformation, where reduced volumes, narrower applications, stronger controls, and a shift towards fluorinated materials are considered “lower risk”. This train of thought means that PFAS will likely persist in the chemical market, although in a more regulated and more scrutinised form.
Overall, it is easy to conclude that a major transition is underway. There are unmistakable signs that the PFAS market will die, as leading chemical companies declare their commitments to halt production, regulatory pressures grow, and the rapid development of replacement chemical products continues apace. In high-volume consumer and commercial markets, the era of PFAS may indeed be drawing to a close.
Yet it is equally clear that PFAS in critical applications and specialised forms are unlikely to disappear in the near term.
Because despite the numerous bans and pledges, the commercial truth is that PFAS are evolving into a more strategically managed product class rather than one destined for extinction. While global PFAS trade is shifting towards fewer products, tighter controls, and more specialised applications, in many of these areas, PFAS are set to remain commercially indispensable well into the future.
The chemical industry is therefore entering a period of selective phase-out rather than absolute elimination. A situation which leaves chemical producers and suppliers the unenviable challenge of navigating regulations, accelerating innovation, and managing legacy liabilities, all while maintaining essential chemical market value.
To learn more about this topic, read Part 1 of this article Is this the End of PFAS Production and Trade? - Maybe or EU-Australia Deal to Reshape Raw Material Supply
